Large Cap Diversified Value

Market Commentary

Period ended December 31, 2019
 

MARKET COMMENTARY

For much of calendar year 2019, the United States engaged in a trade war with its largest global trading partner.  Near the end of the year, the House of Representatives impeached the President for just the third time in history.  US equity markets shrugged off the tumultuous political environment and the S&P 500 Index returned an impressive +31.5%; there have been only 16 calendar years since 1926 that have been better. The economy has been supportive with real GDP modestly positive, inflation range-bound around 2%, and unemployment at a 50-year low.   

The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio went from 15.4x at the beginning of the year to 19.8x at the end of the year; the 28% multiple expansion explains nearly all of the market’s performance. The market’s average P/E over the past 30 years is 17.1x, so it went from about 10% below average to about 15% above average over the course of the year. Importantly, however, interest rates are considerably lower than they have been for most of that period—the 10-year treasury yield is just 1.9% compared to its 30-year average of 4.4%.  Technology was the top-performing sector by a large margin, returning +50% over the 12 months.  Energy was the worst-performing sector for the third year in a row, returning +12%. All other S&P 500 sectors returned between +20% and +33%. 

For the third year in a row, the Russell 1000 Growth outperformed the Russell 1000 Value (+36.4% vs. 26.5%).  Growth outperformed value in 7 of the last 10 calendar years with cumulative outperformance of more than 100% (+312% vs. +205%, or +15.2% vs. +11.8% annualized), nearly all of which occurred in the last three years.  The lopsided performance has resulted in a wider-than-normal valuation spread between growth and value.  Over the past 25 years, the average forward P/E for the Russell 1000 Growth has been 20.2x compared to 15.0x for the Russell 1000 Value, which represents an average valuation spread of 5.2x.  As of 12/31/19, the forward P/E for the growth and value indices were 25.6x and 16.6x, respectively, or a spread of 9.0x.  This valuation gap has only been wider 7% of the time, all of which came during the tech/internet bubble from 1999 to 2001.  Using price-to-book instead of price-to-earnings, the current valuation gap has been exceeded only 1% of the time historically, with the tech/internet bubble again representing the lone exception. 

Investors’ increasing preference for low stock price volatility explains at least a portion of the valuation gap’s widening. The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index is composed of the 100 index stocks that exhibited the lowest volatility in the previous 12 months (i.e. the least volatile quintile of the S&P 500).  Over the last decade, the low volatility index’s forward P/E averaged about 1.0x multiple points higher than the broad index (18.8x vs. 17.8x).  The average premium over the first 8 years was 0.4x multiple points, however, while the average premium over the last 2 years was 3.1x multiple points (the spread as of 12/31/19 was also 3.1x). This has caused a substantial divergence between certain industries whereby many non-cyclicals exhibit rich risk-adjusted valuations relative to their cyclical counterparts.  As an example, the forward P/E ratio for S&P 500 utilities has risen by more than 60% over the last decade; the forward P/E ratio for S&P 500 banks has fallen by 5% over the same period. We have nothing against utilities, consumer staples, or REITs, other than the seemingly high prices currently required to purchase them.   

While the overall equity market appears fully valued compared to history, we believe the valuation disparities across the market create an investment environment highly conducive to long-term focused active management, particularly in relative terms. The spread between the growth and value indices is wide, suggesting a promising outlook for value. The spread between the portfolio and the value index is also wide, suggesting a promising outlook for the portfolio. The portfolio trades at 8.9x normal earnings (historical average of 9.1x) compared to the Russell 1000 Value at 15.4x (historical average of 13.4x) and the Russell 1000 Growth at 26.6x (historical average of 19.5x). The considerable valuation advantage combined with good underlying businesses and healthy balance sheets leaves us confident about the portfolio’s prospects, particularly compared to passive alternatives. 

ATTRIBUTION: 2019

The Hotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Diversified Value portfolio (gross and net of management fees) outperformed the Russell 1000 Value Index in 2019. Positive stock selection across a broad array of sectors caused the outperformance in the year; stock selection in financials, healthcare, utilities, and energy each contributed in a meaningful way.  The overweight exposure to technology and the underweight exposure to healthcare also helped.  Negative stock selection in technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary along with the overweight position in energy were the largest performance detractors in the year. The largest positive contributors to relative performance over the year were Microsoft, Hess, General Electric, Citigroup, and AIG; the largest detractors were Marathon Oil, Corning, Apache, Goodyear Tire, and Vodafone. 

LARGEST NEW PURCHASES: 2019

Alphabet is the parent of Google, which dominates many of the most important services Internet users rely on.  Current valuation is near the market multiple in spite of better growth prospects, an overcapitalized balance sheet, and significant options in Cloud services and new advertising.  

FedEx delivers packages and freight globally to more than 99% of the world’s GDP, including 220 countries and every address in the United States. A mix shift toward business-to-consumer packages is pressuring margins in its Ground business, while global trade tensions and softening industrial production are pressuring international express pricing and volumes. This has led to FedEx trading down to compelling valuation levels, creating an attractive entry point for a strong business with sustainable competitive advantages.

Fluor Corp. is one of the largest E&C companies in the world, with global scale in engineering, construction, and fabrication. More than half of its normal revenue is in the relatively cyclical Energy, Chemicals, & Mining (ECM) segment, while ~30% of normal revenue is from the stable Government and Services businesses. Fluor is a high-quality professional services company with a medium-risk business model that grows with no reinvested capital in an industry with few threats of disruption. Valuation is good on cyclically depressed earnings that should improve with spending cycles in Oil & Gas and mining. Volatility from recent projects’ execution has depressed current margins and created an attractive entry point. 

Composite performance for the strategy is located on the Performance tab. Returns discussed can differ from actual portfolio returns due to intraday trades, cash flows, corporate actions, accrued/miscellaneous income, and trade price and closing price difference of any given security. Portfolio characteristics and attribution based on representative Large Cap Diversified Value portfolio. Certain client portfolio(s) may or may not hold the securities discussed due to each account’s guideline restrictions, cash flow, tax and other relevant considerations. Equity performance attribution is an analysis of the portfolio's return relative to a selected benchmark, is calculated using daily holdings information and does not reflect management fees and other transaction costs and expenses.  Specific securities identified are the largest contributors (or detractors) to the portfolio’s performance relative to the Russell 1000 Value Index. Other securities may have been the best and worst performers on an absolute basis. The “Largest New Purchases” section includes the three largest new security positions during the quarter/year based on the security’s quarter/year-end weight adjusted for its relative return contribution; does not include any security received as a result of a corporate action; if fewer than three new security positions during the quarter/year, all new security positions are included.  Securities identified do not represent all of the securities purchased or sold for advisory clients, and are not indicative of current or future holdings or trading activity.  H&W has no obligation to disclose purchases or sales of the securities.  No assurance is made that any securities identified, or all investment decisions by H&W were or will be profitable. The value discipline used in managing accounts in the Large Cap Diversified Value strategy may prevent or limit investment in major stocks in the S&P 500, Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, S&P 500 Bank, S&P 500 Utilities and S&P 500 Low Volatility indices and returns may not be correlated to the indexes. Quarterly characteristics and portfolio holdings are available on the Characteristics and Literature tabs. For a list showing every holding’s contribution to the overall account’s performance and portfolio activity for a given time period, please contact H&W at hotchkisandwiley@hwcm.com.  Portfolio information is subject to the firm’s portfolio holdings disclosure policy.
 
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
 

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